In China's booming smartphone market, which is set this year to overtake
the United States as the world's largest, a host of little-known local
firms are primed with cheap phones to squeeze market share from U.S.
giant Apple Inc's iPhone.
In the latest local challenge to the iPhone,
Xiaomi Technology on Thursday launches the successor to its popular
MiOne smartphone, which is expected to have top-end specifications
exceeding those of the iPhone 4S at around half the price.
While
iPhone sales will increase in China, Apple's market share may stagnate
or even dip as the market's changing demographics mean the iPhone
flourishes in just a handful of wealthy Chinese cities, analysts said.
"The
sweet spot of affordability in China is 800-1,500 yuan," said Michael
Clendenin, managing director of Shanghai-based consultancy RedTech
Advisors. "The 'Lao Bai Xing', or man in the street, is going to go for
these mid-tier phones."
Industry researcher IDC estimates that in
China last year, smartphones costing less than $200 made up 40 percent
of shipments, while devices costing $700 and more accounted for 11
percent of the market.
Apple releases a single iPhone model a year
at a price around $800 equivalent to about two months pay for an urban
Chinese, who make up half of China's 1.3 billion population. Analysts
say the real growth in China is in cheaper smartphones where a wide
variety of models at different prices appeal to first-time buyers.
"Apple
isn't going to rule China, simply because of the limited models they
have and the price points they target," said TZ Wong, an analyst with
IDC. "Based on these two factors, we do not think Apple will be the No. 1
smartphone player in China."
Apple ranked second in January-March
smartphone shipments in China, with 17.3 percent market share, trailing
Samsung Electronics' 19.2 percent, according to research firm, Gartner.
Smartphones
from Xiaomi founded only two years ago but already worth more than
Blackberry maker Research in Motion, according to private market
valuations have proved so popular they sell out in minutes after going
on sale online. The company, founded by CEO Lei Jun, said last month its
first-half revenue was close to $1 billion as it sold more than 3
million phones.
Mirroring Apple's annual worldwide developers
conference (WWDC), where devotees would pay to listen to Steve Jobs
showcasing new products, the informally-clad Lei will charge MiOne fans
199 yuan to attend the Beijing launch, with the proceeds going to
charity.
iOS to slip to third
Apple's market share by volume
has been on a downtrend, and the share of the market commanded by its
iOS mobile operating system is expected to slip to third place by 2016
from second earlier this year, according to Gartner analyst Sandy Shen
below Google Inc's Android and Microsoft Corp's Windows.
Apple's
iPhone sales in China, its second-largest market, stumbled in April-June
on inventory adjustments with the launch of the iPhone 4S. That extra
inventory meant resellers didn't need to buy as many iPhones during the
quarter, and the expected launch later this year of the iPhone 5, with
enhanced Chinese language capabilities, also likely held back orders.
"Apple's
market share is pretty stable. It will be flat over the next five
years. Although volume-wise it's increasing, that's because the total
market is growing," Shen said.
Research firms IDC and Gartner
predict China's smartphone shipments could hit 140 million this year,
topping those in the United States.
High spec, low cost
Growth
is driven largely by smartphones made by ZTE Corp, Lenovo Group and
smaller private firms such as Xiaomi, Gionee and Meizu Technology.
Meizu
phones, which sell in China and Hong Kong for 1,500 yuan, are feted by
Western technology blogs for offering high-end smartphones at bargain
basement prices.
Offering even cheaper models, Alibaba Group,
Shanda Interactive and Baidu Inc have all this year launched smartphones
for under 1,000 yuan. Baidu's phone, made with partners, retails at 899
yuan, while Alibaba's waterproof smartphone, made with Haier
Electronics Group, costs 999 yuan.
"For those with an iPhone or
Samsung it's just a replacement cycle. But for many people who haven't
got their first smartphone, those are the people who will get cheap
smartphones," Shen said.
Copyright Thomson Reuters 2012